# Tightened Reversal/Sudden Stop Definitions

## Event Counts

| Definition | Events | % of obs |
|:---|---:|---:|
| Original 3pp | 1350 | 7.59% |
| Persistent | 544 | 3.06% |
| Flow-Collapse | 531 | 2.99% |
| Strict SS | 276 | 1.55% |
| 5pp Threshold | 816 | 4.59% |

## Z Factor Regressions (Logit MFX)

| Variable | Original 3pp | Persistent | Flow-Collapse | Strict SS | 5pp Threshold |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -0.6023*** | 0.0102 | -0.1356 | -0.1221*** | -0.4502*** |
| | (0.2172) | (0.1400) | (0.1451) | (0.0395) | (0.1592) |
| Z_2 | 0.1062*** | 0.0028 | 0.0195 | 0.0194*** | 0.0790*** |
| | (0.0328) | (0.0212) | (0.0220) | (0.0059) | (0.0241) |
| Z_3 | -0.0049*** | -0.0003 | -0.0008 | -0.0008*** | -0.0037*** |
| | (0.0013) | (0.0009) | (0.0009) | (0.0002) | (0.0010) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0025*** | -0.0003 | 0.0006 | -0.0002 | -0.0016** |
| | (0.0009) | (0.0006) | (0.0006) | (0.0002) | (0.0007) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0146*** | 0.0094*** | 0.0022 | 0.0015*** | 0.0058** |
| | (0.0040) | (0.0022) | (0.0028) | (0.0006) | (0.0027) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0015* | 0.0004 | 0.0019*** | -0.0027*** | -0.0021*** |
| | (0.0008) | (0.0005) | (0.0004) | (0.0002) | (0.0006) |
| kaopen | -0.0008 | -0.0021 | 0.0011 | 0.0008 | 0.0031 |
| | (0.0037) | (0.0024) | (0.0024) | (0.0007) | (0.0027) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 | 5489 |
| Pseudo-R² | 0.0323 | 0.0234 | 0.0204 | 0.3382 | 0.0534 |

## Youth/Aging Decomposition by Reversal Definition

| Variable | Original 3pp (Age) | Persistent (Age) | Flow-Collapse (Age) | Strict SS (Age) | 5pp Threshold (Age) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| youth_dep | -0.0771** | -0.0293 | 0.0352* | -0.0047 | -0.0512** |
| | (0.0303) | (0.0193) | (0.0202) | (0.0058) | (0.0216) |
| old_dep | -0.8118*** | -0.3401*** | -0.1141* | -0.1012*** | -0.7987*** |
| | (0.1019) | (0.0667) | (0.0672) | (0.0212) | (0.0835) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0027*** | -0.0004 | 0.0006 | -0.0002 | -0.0018*** |
| | (0.0009) | (0.0006) | (0.0006) | (0.0002) | (0.0007) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0162*** | 0.0086*** | 0.0024 | 0.0017*** | 0.0059** |
| | (0.0041) | (0.0021) | (0.0028) | (0.0006) | (0.0027) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0016* | 0.0003 | 0.0019*** | -0.0028*** | -0.0023*** |
| | (0.0009) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0002) | (0.0006) |
| kaopen | -0.0034 | -0.0020 | 0.0002 | 0.0003 | 0.0017 |
| | (0.0036) | (0.0023) | (0.0024) | (0.0007) | (0.0026) |

*Logit marginal effects at means. \*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*